Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
